2021 US Open, Torrey Pines: Betting Tips
US Open week swings around at Torrey Pines, a tournament and venue that will always be synonymous with Tiger taking the title on one leg.
Since its facelift in 2001 by Rees Jones, the South Course has been stretched to around 7,800 yards. There was also a change to bentgrass at the turn of the millennium, but the native poa annua has since reclaimed its turf.
Bryson Dechambeau’s brutal dismantling of Whistling Straits in last year’s US Open highlighted what the stats have suggested for some time, but most were overlooking/were unable to stomach. The US Open is not about driving accuracy, it’s about driving distance.
Torrey will be set up with harsh rough, as most US Opens are. Having to play out of the thick stuff is especially difficult, but the closer you are to the hole, the higher your chances of escaping unhurt. Shorter hitters missing the fairway will get stung, whereas longer, more errant hitters may miss the fairway more often, but will have a higher chance of making par if he scrambles well. DeChambeau hit 22 fairways last year.
John Rahm leads with the bookies at 11/1. He’s been laying low after a positive COVID test and has the game to prosper, but we’d probably steer clear at those odds. Koepka missed the cut in his last outing and DJ’s short game might not be up to the task, so we’d give these favoured names a miss.
We like Colin Morikawa, who can be picked up at 25/1 and is in outstanding form this term, and has shown he isn’t fazed on the biggest stage. Patrick Reed also enjoys tough layouts, has all the shots and a fantastic control of his golf ball, and can be found at 35/1.
Tyrrell Hatton comes into the comp after a runner-up finish, and he’s a gritty competitor that won’t step back – at 50/1 he is offering some value.
For an EW shout, Branden Grace can be grabbed at 125/1 and enjoys a tough, windy track. If he gets the putter working and the wind picks up, he could post some decent scores while the others struggle.
Wilco Nienaber is only 21 and will feel the heat on Sunday, but his ridiculous distance could put him in the mix. At 250/1, worth a couple.